The demise of the thimerosal hype
First, if you haven't seen the petition to the National Institutes of Health suggesting a postive approach to autism research, please read it and if you agree, please sign it.
Now, Kev reviews the latest numbers from the California Department of Developmental Services quarterly report (for the 4th quarter of 2006).
Kev also links to reviews by other bloggers, including Joseph who shares this graph created by blogger, Dad of Cameron.
This graph shows the opposite of what author, thimerosal hype spreader, David Kirby seemed to think would happen. Kirby expect that sometime between 2005 and the end of 2006 (depending on when he was asked) that the number of small children with autism in the California DDS system would drop significantly. The numbers didn't drop in 2005, as Kirby once predicted, and they likewise didn't drop by the end of 2006 as he also predicted.
The other thing the graph fails to show is what inspired these dire pronouncements of calamity from Rick Rollens and others.
Dr. David Amaral in May 2003:
Right. The "doing the math" part means that if someone could pay Amaral right then to find the cause of the devastation, he could save people money in the long run.
Rick Rollens, April of 2004
Rollens again, January of 2005:
(bold emphasis added)
This tsunami press release was written within days of the real tsunami that hit South Asia at the end of 2004.
Rick Rollens April of 2005:
CA Reports: Autism Cases Decline 2005
Nice use of scare tactics there, too, which he uses even though he thinks there was a significant drop in the intake of autistic clients. Discussion around that press release showed that some interpreted this drop as proof that thimerosal had been the cause of the autism epidemic. Lyn Redwood was quoted around that time as saying that the numbers in California were coming down.
While others from 2002 onward were mostly seeing scary increases in the autism case load the Geiers saw a significant drop, which they trumpeted as caused by the removal of thimerosal from vaccines starting around 1999.
The red line was added by Autism Diva. The black lines show how they decided that the "new intakes" of autistics into the system started to decline with January of 2002.
Two Sacramento area mercury dads who showed up at Fombonne's presentation at the MIND Institute in December of 2005, insisted (during the question period after Fombonne spoke) that the California DDS numbers were dropping since the removal of thimerosal.
The above is Dad of Cameron's graph with some key points in time marked with red arrows and labels by Autism Diva. The Rollens quotes for the most part weren't referring to the increase in just 3-5 year olds in the DDS, but to increases in all ages, but we know that the DDS was adding clients all along who were over 10 years old, sometimes they were adding adults, which was confusing the issue of an "autism epdiemic" that was supposed to have started in 1990 or so and create kids who were un-missable, unmistakably autistic at age 2.
This graph doesn't track a particular cohort of kids. The kids who were 3 at the point this graph starts would now be 7 1/2 now. This is a better graph for checking the effect of the removal of thimerosal. By now number of autistic children in the 3-5 age bracket in the DDS ought to be back where it was before 1990 and even lower than that, if autism was caused in a dosage dependent way by thimerosal, as Kirby's book proposed and the mercury hysterics believed starting around the middle of 2000. Maybe they'd all been infected by all the end-of-the-millenium Y2K talk we heard in 1999 and they needed some place to put their stockpiled hysteria and conspiratorial thinking in 2000.
On the related topic of the MMR hysteria that started in the U.K. with Wakefield and a solicitor named Barr, read Michael Fitzpatrick's overview of Wakefield's doings and how they were uncovered by Brian Deer.
Also, video of a discussion of autism and thimerosal between David Kirby and Arthur Allen on a San Diego television news (Fox 6) program is online. Try this link.
Autism Diva
so inclined
Now, Kev reviews the latest numbers from the California Department of Developmental Services quarterly report (for the 4th quarter of 2006).
Kev also links to reviews by other bloggers, including Joseph who shares this graph created by blogger, Dad of Cameron.
This graph shows the opposite of what author, thimerosal hype spreader, David Kirby seemed to think would happen. Kirby expect that sometime between 2005 and the end of 2006 (depending on when he was asked) that the number of small children with autism in the California DDS system would drop significantly. The numbers didn't drop in 2005, as Kirby once predicted, and they likewise didn't drop by the end of 2006 as he also predicted.
The other thing the graph fails to show is what inspired these dire pronouncements of calamity from Rick Rollens and others.
Dr. David Amaral in May 2003:
"These numbers are frightening," [...] "This is something that is devastating to families and devastating to children who have a lifelong disability. But it will be devastating to the state of California, too. If you think about it, there are now 20,000 kids in the system, and each of them will eventually get $2 million worth of services. Just do the math.
Right. The "doing the math" part means that if someone could pay Amaral right then to find the cause of the devastation, he could save people money in the long run.
Rick Rollens, April of 2004
The social and fiscal disaster that is the autism epidemic is upon us.
God help us.
Rollens again, January of 2005:
According to the recently released report by the California Department of Developmental Services (DDS), California's 36-year old developmental services system has just experienced the largest number of new intakes of children with professionally diagnosed full syndrome autism during a Fourth Quarter reporting period in it's history.
During the Fourth Quarter of 2004 (October - December), California's developmental services system added a record 807 new children with full syndrome autism, not including any children with any other autism spectrum disorder such as PDD, NOS, Asperger's, etc. The 807 new intakes represents a record number of new cases for a Fourth Quarter reporting
period in the system's 36 year history. [...]
The 807 new cases of full syndrome autism reported during the Fourth Quarter of 2004 accounted for 52% of all the new intakes for all the eligible disabilities for that reporting period. [...]
The magnitude of this ongoing tragic epidemic is truly mind boggling.
Ten years ago in January 1995, DDS reported that during the Fourth Quarter of 1994 the system added 142 new cases of full syndrome autism. Today, ten years later in January 2005, DDS reports that during the Fourth Quarter of 2004 there were 807 new cases added to the system. Ten years ago California 's developmental services system had a total of 5,775 cases of full syndrome autism in it's entire system. Ten years later in January 2005, there are now 26,578 cases of full syndrome autism in the system. In California 's developmental services system, 8 out of 10 persons with full syndrome autism are between the ages of 3 and 17 years old....7 out of 10 under the age of 14.
The tsunami has arrived.
(bold emphasis added)
This tsunami press release was written within days of the real tsunami that hit South Asia at the end of 2004.
Rick Rollens April of 2005:
CA Reports: Autism Cases Decline 2005
From California autism advocate Rick Rollens.
According to information released today by the California Department of Developmental Services (syndrome autism of any 1st quarter reporting period since year 2001. 736 new cases were DDS) www.dds.ca.gov/autism , the First Quarter of 2005 (1/4/05 to 4/4/05) produced the smallest number of new cases of professionally diagnosed DSM IV full added. Syndrome; Mental Retardation, Cerebral Palsy, and Epilepsy. [...]
[...] At the beginning of 1988, some 17 short years ago, there were 2,778 cases of autism in California's developmental services system. Today there are 27,312
Today there are 27,312.
Today, California is adding on average eight new children a day, seven days a week, with professionally diagnosed DSM IV full syndrome autism to it's system. 80%, or 8 out of 10, of all persons with autism in California's system are between the ages of 3 and 17 years old.
The staggering tidal wave of young children is unique to the autism.
Nice use of scare tactics there, too, which he uses even though he thinks there was a significant drop in the intake of autistic clients. Discussion around that press release showed that some interpreted this drop as proof that thimerosal had been the cause of the autism epidemic. Lyn Redwood was quoted around that time as saying that the numbers in California were coming down.
While others from 2002 onward were mostly seeing scary increases in the autism case load the Geiers saw a significant drop, which they trumpeted as caused by the removal of thimerosal from vaccines starting around 1999.
The red line was added by Autism Diva. The black lines show how they decided that the "new intakes" of autistics into the system started to decline with January of 2002.
Two Sacramento area mercury dads who showed up at Fombonne's presentation at the MIND Institute in December of 2005, insisted (during the question period after Fombonne spoke) that the California DDS numbers were dropping since the removal of thimerosal.
The above is Dad of Cameron's graph with some key points in time marked with red arrows and labels by Autism Diva. The Rollens quotes for the most part weren't referring to the increase in just 3-5 year olds in the DDS, but to increases in all ages, but we know that the DDS was adding clients all along who were over 10 years old, sometimes they were adding adults, which was confusing the issue of an "autism epdiemic" that was supposed to have started in 1990 or so and create kids who were un-missable, unmistakably autistic at age 2.
This graph doesn't track a particular cohort of kids. The kids who were 3 at the point this graph starts would now be 7 1/2 now. This is a better graph for checking the effect of the removal of thimerosal. By now number of autistic children in the 3-5 age bracket in the DDS ought to be back where it was before 1990 and even lower than that, if autism was caused in a dosage dependent way by thimerosal, as Kirby's book proposed and the mercury hysterics believed starting around the middle of 2000. Maybe they'd all been infected by all the end-of-the-millenium Y2K talk we heard in 1999 and they needed some place to put their stockpiled hysteria and conspiratorial thinking in 2000.
On the related topic of the MMR hysteria that started in the U.K. with Wakefield and a solicitor named Barr, read Michael Fitzpatrick's overview of Wakefield's doings and how they were uncovered by Brian Deer.
Also, video of a discussion of autism and thimerosal between David Kirby and Arthur Allen on a San Diego television news (Fox 6) program is online. Try this link.
Autism Diva
so inclined